A NOVEL DETERMINISTIC EPIDEMIC MODEL CONSIDERING MASS VACCINATION AND LOCKDOWN AGAINST COVID-19 SPREAD IN ISRAEL: NUMERICAL STUDY
Abstract

Author(s): Motoaki Utamura*, Makoto Koizumi and Seiichi Kirikami

Why public health intervention by Israel government against COVID-19 spread has been successful while the most countries in the world is still coping with it? To give the quantitative answer, a simple numerical epidemic model is prepared to simulate an entire trend of various infection related variables considering vaccination campaign and simultaneous lockdown. The model is an extension of the deterministic physical model ATLM previously published by the authors that aims to predict an entire trend of variables in a single epidemic. The time series data of both vaccine dose ratio and lockdown period are employed in the model. Predictions have been compared with observed data in terms of daily new cases, isolated people, infectious at large and effective reproductive number and the model is verified. Moreover, parameter survey calculations for several scenarios have clarified a synergy effect of vaccination and lockdown have existed. In particular, it is suggested vaccination dose rate should be fast enough to achieve at least 40% effectiveness on the rescission of lockdown in order to avoid the rebound of the epidemic.

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